1) Narinder Wadhwa, Managing Director & CEO of SKI Capital Services Ltd.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on March 18-19, 2025.
Interest Rates: The FOMC is anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision aligns with the Fed’s cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, particularly those arising from recent tariff policies.
Economic Projections: Alongside the rate decision, the Fed will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), offering insights into members’ expectations for GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. These projections will be closely analyzed for indications of future monetary policy directions.
Market Context: The meeting occurs against a backdrop of market volatility, partly due to recent tariff we was announcements and their implications for global ddddsss dr op CT might influence the Fed’s policy stance in the coming months. The outcome of the March FOMC meeting will have a direct impact on gold and crude oil prices , primarily through its influence on interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations. Here’s how:
Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and the U.S. dollar
No Rate Cut (Status Quo at 4.25%-4.50%) If the Fed maintains rates, gold may see limited upside or a slight pullback, as higher yields make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Dovish Signals (Rate Cuts Expected in 2025) If Powell signals rate cuts later in the year, the dollar could weaken, boosting gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and the U.S. dollar
No Rate Cut (Status Quo at 4.25%-4.50%) If the Fed maintains rates, gold may see limited upside or a slight pullback, as higher yields make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Dovish Signals (Rate Cuts Expected in 2025) If Powell signals rate cuts later in the year, the dollar could weaken, boosting gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
While no immediate changes to interest rates are expected, the FOMC’s communications will be pivotal in shaping market expectations for the remainder of the year. His remarks will be scrutinized for any signals regarding the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions and potential policy adjustments in response to evolving economic data.
2) Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst, Reliance Securities
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on March 18–19, 2025, to assess economic conditions and determine the direction of monetary policy. The meeting comes at a time when U.S. GDP growth is showing signs of slowing, while inflation remains persistent. Investors are also increasingly concerned about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and federal job cuts, which could heighten recession risks.
Interest Rate Outlook. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% as it evaluates the effects of previous policy measures.
Given the economic uncertainty, the central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach rather than rush into rate cuts.
Economic Projections & Dot Plot. The meeting will also bring the release of the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, including the “dot plot,” which reflects policymakers’ expectations for future interest rates. Previous forecasts pointed to two 25-bps rate cuts in 2025 (a total of 50 basis points). However, with inflation remaining sticky and growth decelerating, these projections could see some revisions.
Market Impact: Gold & Crude Oil If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, delaying or limiting rate cuts, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on gold and crude oil. However, gold may still find support due to its safe-haven appeal in times of economic uncertainty. Crude oil prices, on the other hand, could receive some support from optimism around potential stimulus measures in China.
MCX Gold April Contract: Expected to trade between ₹86,500 and ₹88,500.
MCX Crude April Contract: Likely to fluctuate between ₹5,800 and ₹6,000.Traders and investors should closely follow the Fed’s announcements, as they will provide key insights into the future path of monetary policy and its impact on financial markets.
3) Dr. Bharath Supra Associate Professor (School Of Business Management), NMIMS Navi Mumbai
The Federal reserve’s next meeting is a pivotal one as the markets seek guidance on interest rates. While inflation has eased, it remains above the Fed’s target, raising doubts over any hopes on rate cuts. A dovish policy would reduce borrowing costs and lift the markets, while a hawkish Fed could lead to a selloff. Bond yield, stocks and the dollar are all still volatile, reacting to every policy limit. Investors are looking to the Fed for signals on its future actions. The Federal reserve’s signal on the interest rates will have a major bearing on the gold and crude oil prices. If the Fed hints at cutting rates, decreasing bonds yields and falling dollar would propel gold prices upwards. A hawkish approach, on the other hand, would make the dollar strong and put in more pressure on gold prices. For crude, the Fed’s move impacts the economic growth and demand. Rising interest rates might slow down the economy, lowering energy consumption and putting a lid on the increase in oil prices. While a dovish stance can weaken the dollar making the oil expensive for purchasers. The crude market will definitely be paying attention to Powell’s cues.
4) Mayank Mundhra, FRM- VP Risk & Head Research Abans Financial Services Ltd
Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting starting tomorrow. While no immediate cuts are expected, investors are pricing in deeper reductions later this year as inflation eases, with U.S. inflation falling to 2.8% in February due to lower gasoline and fuel oil prices. The Fed’s dot plot, which outlines policymakers’ rate projections, will be closely watched for future guidance. However, caution remains as Trump’s tariff policies could reintroduce inflationary pressures, influencing future Fed decisions. Gold has surged about 14% in 2025, after ~27% in 2024, driven by large political uncertainties and central bank buying. Inflation expectations have not played a major role in the rally so far. Going ahead, with reducing inflation concerns and potential rate cuts, gold rally may continue fueled by uncertainties globally. Delayed cut in rates, will slower the momentum. Crude oil’s reaction will hinge on the Fed’s economic outlook. A dovish stance could weaken the dollar, making oil cheaper for global buyers and boosting demand. However, concerns over inflationary pressures from tariffs may delay cuts, strengthening the dollar and weighing on prices. The Fed’s decision and forward guidance will shape market sentiment. A dovish outlook could support gold and oil, while a cautious stance may strengthen the dollar, keeping commodity prices in check.